Will COP29 be an enabling COP?

The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 comes at a unique point in time.

Set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November 2024, it commences just after the US presidential election - one of multiple elections around the globe this year – and as the world tackles ever more extreme weather events as well as conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.

This year’s event will have to follow up on the first-ever stocktake of global climate action and the call to gradually transition away from fossil fuels that was agreed at last year’s COP28.

It will be headed by Mukhtar Babayev, who has served as Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources since 2018 and has close ties to the country's national oil company, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR).

Like the United Arab Emirates, which hosted COP28, Azerbaijan’s economy largely relies on oil and gas production, which accounts for around half of the country’s GDP and over 90% of its export revenues.¹  

While it might not be conducive to concrete actions aimed at transitioning away from fossil fuels in the short term, the current backdrop of exacerbated geopolitical risks and conflict in the Middle East raise in our view more impactful questions. Supply disruptions have the potential to weigh on energy prices - around 20% of today’s oil and liquified natural gas supplies flow through the Strait of Hormuz²  - in turn impacting the future of energy demand alongside energy security obligations. It is likely to colour the debates at this upcoming COP on future carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions data.

Meanwhile, key negotiations at COP29 are expected to widely focus on climate finance. In our view, climate ambition is likely to remain confined to advocating enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and advancing on 2030 renewable energy and energy efficiency targets announced at COP28.